Notes

Bitcoin's rebound has been swift, but realised capital is still catching up. Past recoveries point to a possible consolidation, which today's cost-basis levels place between $74.3K and $105.9K, before a sustained run of…

Bitcoin has entered Breakout as selling pressure eases, and how far it carries now depends on demand working through the $84.0K–$98.0K supply band.

Bitcoin has climbed back above $80.0K, but the path from Repair to Advance still runs through heavy overhead supply and lingering loss pressure among long-term holders. The question now is whether spot demand can carry …

Bitcoin has left Capitulation, and the framework has held the market in Repair into its third week. The seller base has rotated from Long-Term Holders realising losses to profitable Short-Term Holders, and on-chain meas…

Bitcoin has moved into a Repair regime after a sharp recovery from the June lows. The next test is whether returning demand can absorb rising sell-side pressure and keep the regime alive.

QFI Labs' framework still reads Capitulation, but a record short squeeze has carried Bitcoin above Repair levels. Now voluntary demand must replace forced buyers and absorb the supply waiting to sell.

Bitcoin bottoms rarely ring a bell. All three prior cycle lows came in the second phase of a Capitulation regime. At 76 days, is this market building a floor or about to fall through it?

When does this Capitulation end? Under the framework introduced in QFI Labs’ previous edition, the market has now remained in a Capitulation regime for 69 days. This edition compares the current episode with past capitu…

Where are we in this cycle? It is the question many Bitcoin investors are trying to answer, and the evidence assembled here places the market in the first half of a capitulation regime, 51 days in, with time rather than…